• Climate Change
  • 1 Climate Change
    • 1.1 Neo-liberal Climate Change
  • I Climate Models
  • 2 Climate Models
    • 2.1 University of Chicago
    • 2.2 Mental Picture of Greenhouse Effect
    • 2.3 Political IAMs
    • 2.4 CAP6
    • 2.5 Coupled Climate-Social Models
    • 2.6 DICE Climate Model
      • 2.6.1 The failure of Dice Economics
    • 2.7 E3ME-FTT-GENIE
    • 2.8 EZ-Climate Model
    • 2.9 FAIR Climate Model
    • 2.10 GCAM
    • 2.11 Global Calculator
    • 2.12 Mimi Framework
    • 2.13 MODTRAN
    • 2.14 Monash Climate Model
    • 2.15 PAGE
    • 2.16 Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM)
    • 2.17 NorESM
      • 2.17.1 CCSM4
      • 2.17.2 NorESM Features
    • 2.18 AI in Climate Research
    • 2.19 Climate Catastrophe
      • 2.19.1 Endgame
    • 2.20 Goal Index
    • 2.21 Model Drift
    • 2.22 Model-evaluation
      • 2.22.1 Measuering Forcings
  • 3 Values in Climate Science
  • II Climate System
  • 4 Climate System
    • 4.1 EEI - Earth Energy Imbalance
    • 4.2 Convection
    • 4.3 El Nino
    • 4.4 Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)
      • 4.4.1 Energy Imbalance Trend (TEEI)
    • 4.5 Hurricanes
    • 4.6 Jet Stream
      • 4.6.1 Quasi-Resonant Amplification (QRA)
    • 4.7 Total Solar Irradiance
    • 4.8 Spatial Shock
      • 4.8.1 Coastal Flooding
  • 5 Climate Stability
  • 6 Tipping
    • 6.1 Tipping Points in Clouds
    • 6.2 Timing Tipping
  • 7 Climate Change Indicators
    • 7.1 EPA
    • 7.2 Guardian
  • 8 IPCC
    • 8.1 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
  • III Measurements
  • 9 Attribution
    • 9.1 Attribution Studies Timeline
    • 9.2 Map of Attribution Studies
    • 9.3 Bottom Trawling CO2 release
    • 9.4 Company Attribution
  • 10 Carbon Budget
    • 10.1 Net-zero
    • 10.2 Revelle factor
  • 11 Climate Sensitivity
    • 11.1 Climate Feedbacks
    • 11.2 Global Warming Pipeline
      • 11.2.1 Equilibrium Warming
    • 11.3 ECS - Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
      • 11.3.1 Roe and Baker Distribution
      • 11.3.2 GCM based Approach
      • 11.3.3 GCM free Approach
    • 11.4 Remote Sensing of Tipping Points
    • 11.5 Exxon’s 1980s Scenario
  • 12 CO2 vs Temperature: Causality
    • 12.1 Temperature lags CO2 during deglaciation
    • 12.2 Hen-Or-Egg Causality
      • 12.2.1 Causal Structure by Information Flow Analysis
    • 12.3 The 1940s CO2 Plateau
    • 12.4 Origins of CO2 increase
      • 12.4.1 Anthropogenic CO2
  • 13 CO2 Isotopes
    • 13.1 Suess Effect
    • 13.2 Isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis
    • 13.3 Isotopic signature of Anthropocene
  • 14 Decoupling
  • 15 Paleoclimate
    • 15.1 Holocen Thermal Maxima
  • 16 Pattern Effect
  • 17 Temperature Measurements
    • 17.1 Hockey Stick Graph
    • 17.2 El Niño - La Niña
  • 18 Water Vapor
  • IV Elements
  • 19 Albedo
  • 20 Atmosphere
    • 20.1 Emissions
      • 20.1.1 Volcanos
      • 20.1.2 Anual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI)
      • 20.1.3 CO2
      • 20.1.4 Carbon Cycle
      • 20.1.5 Methane
      • 20.1.6 Methane Reservoir Laptev Sea
      • 20.1.7 Methane-Hydrates
      • 20.1.8 Methane emission rates
      • 20.1.9 Methane (other)
      • 20.1.10 Methane - Wetland Feedback
      • 20.1.11 Methane Removal
      • 20.1.12 Hydrogen (Leakage)
    • 20.2 Aerosols
    • 20.3 Ozone Layer
      • 20.3.1 Artic Ozone Hole
    • 20.4 Stratosphere shrinking
      • 20.4.1 N2O
    • 20.5 Contrails
    • 20.6 Clouds
    • 20.7 Attributing Emissions
      • 20.7.1 Norway’s Responsibility
      • 20.7.2 Global North vs South Responsibility
      • 20.7.3 Concrete / Cement
  • 21 Forests
    • 21.1 Forests tipping: go from sink to source of CO2 due to temperature increase.
      • 21.1.1 Photosynthesis Failure
    • 21.2 Amazonas Firetrap
    • 21.3 Plant and Cut - Forest CCS
    • 21.4 Deforestation Footprint
  • 22 Grasslands
  • 23 Groundwater
    • 23.1 Groundwater rise
  • 24 Ice Sheet
    • 24.1 Greenland
    • 24.2 Antarctica
      • 24.2.1 Sea-level Rise from Antarctica
      • 24.2.2 Thwaites
      • 24.2.3 Gyre Ross
    • 24.3 Arctic Sea Ice
    • 24.4 Ice Sheet Collapse
  • 25 Ocean
    • 25.1 Ocean Temperature
    • 25.2 Ocean Skin
    • 25.3 Ocean Heat Content
      • 25.3.1 Deep Ocean Heat Content
    • 25.4 El Niño - La Niña
      • 25.4.1 2023 Ocean Heat Surge
    • 25.5 Ocean Acidification
      • 25.5.1 Outgassing
    • 25.6 Ocean-Atmosphere Carbon Balance
      • 25.6.1 Air-Sea Flux Calculation
      • 25.6.2 Fungus fast track carbon
      • 25.6.3 Ocean Carbon Sink
    • 25.7 Sea Level Rise
      • 25.7.1 Uncertainty
      • 25.7.2 TSLS Transient Sea Level Sensitivity
      • 25.7.3 High-End Seal Level Rise Estimate
    • 25.8 AMOC - Gulf Stream
      • 25.8.1 The Rise and Fall of AMOC
      • 25.8.2 Rethinking AMOC
    • 25.9 AMOC Collapse EWS (Early Warning Signals)
    • 25.10 Whale Mitigation
    • 25.11 Antarctica’s Role
    • 25.12 Failing phytoplankton, failing oxygen
  • 26 Permafrost
  • 27 Soil
    • 27.1 Soil Depth
    • 27.2 Peatland
    • 27.3 Land Use Change (LUC)
      • 27.3.1 Climate effect of Land Use Change
    • 27.4 Fertilizers
    • 27.5 Regenerative Agriculture
    • 27.6 Rice Fields
    • 27.7 Fungi
  • V Policy
  • 28 Adaptation
    • 28.1 Lagging mitigation, lagging adaptation
    • 28.2 Mobilization for Adaptation
      • 28.2.1 Climate Grant Universities
  • 29 Carbon Pricing
    • 29.1 CBAM
    • 29.2 Policy Sequencing
    • 29.3 Limited Impact on Emissions
    • 29.4 Carbon Price Norway
  • 30 Carbon Offsets
    • 30.1 Market Upscaling
  • 31 CSS - Carbon Capture and Storage
    • 31.1 CSS Unrealistic Costs
    • 31.2 CSS will not work as planned and is a dangerous distraction
    • 31.3 CSS and DAC cause more Damage than Good
    • 31.4 BECCS
    • 31.5 CDR - Mitigation Deterrence
    • 31.6 CCS - Not a Climate Solution
    • 31.7 CO2 Direct Air Capture DAC
    • 31.8 Smokestack CO2 removal
    • 31.9 OCR - Ocean-based Carbon Removal
      • 31.9.1 Ebb
    • 31.10 Thermodynamics of DAC
  • 32 SAI Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
  • 33 Cap and Trade
  • 34 Fee and dividend
  • 35 SAI Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
  • 36 SCC - Social Costs of Carbon
    • 36.1 The most important number you have never heard of
      • 36.1.1 Greenstone Testimony
      • 36.1.2 Greenstone Estimating SCC (MIT CEEPR WP 2011-006):*
      • 36.1.3 Greenstone: Updating SCC
    • 36.2 Current Prices far below SCC
    • 36.3 Stern Stiglitz Alternative Approach
      • 36.3.1 Stern Stiglitz Carbon Pricing Commission
    • 36.4 MCC - Mortality Cost of Carbon
  • 37 Geoengineering
    • 37.1 A desparate idea
    • 37.2 Solar Geoengineering
    • 37.3 Ocean Geoengineering
  • 38 Fair Shares
  • VI Impacts
  • 39 Impacts
  • 40 Draught
    • 40.0.1 European Draught Extremes
  • 41 Rainfall
    • 41.1 Decreased Globel Precipitation Area
    • 41.2 Quasi-stationary Rainstorms
    • 41.3 Landslides
    • 41.4 Water availability
      • 41.4.1 Energy Crops takes away Water
    • 41.5 Agricultural Productivity
      • 41.5.1 Synchronized Low Yields
      • 41.5.2 Crop Yield Draught Sensitivity
  • 42 Human Health
    • 42.1 Morbidity and Mortality
    • 42.2 Humid Heat Bulbs
      • 42.2.1 Urban Heat Exposure
    • 42.3 COVID
    • 42.4 Metabolism
    • 42.5 Melting Glacier Viral Spillovers
  • 43 Societal Collapse
    • 43.1 Deep Adaptation
  • 44 Climate Controvercies
  • VII Actions
  • 45 Action Strategy
    • 45.1 Authoritarian or Democratic Action
    • 45.2 STS - Societal Transformation Scenario
    • 45.3 Societal Impact (Lack of)
    • 45.4 Deep Adaptation
  • 46 Academic Failure
  • 47 Capitalism and Climate Change
    • 47.1 Orthogonal?
  • 48 Climate Finance
    • 48.1 Green Investing
    • 48.2 Sustainable Finance
    • 48.3 Financial Stability
      • 48.3.1 Methods and Data
  • 49 Legal Action
    • 49.1 Ecocide: Crime?
    • 49.2 German Constitutional Court
    • 49.3 EU Import Ban
  • 50 Lobbying
  • 51 Net Zero
    • 51.1 Net Zero Trap
    • 51.2 Net Negative
    • 51.3 Direct Air Capture
    • 51.4 Net Zero Targeting
    • 51.5 Action Tracker
      • 51.5.1 Net Negative
    • 51.6 Scope3 Value Chain Emissions
  • 52 Outreach
  • 53 Climate Politics
    • 53.1 Asset Revaluation - Existential Politics
    • 53.2 Climate Clubs
    • 53.3 Climate Debt
    • 53.4 Distributive Conflicts vs Commons Free-riders
  • 54 Technology
    • 54.1 Cement
  • VIII Appendices
  • Appendices
  • A About
  • B History
  • C Links
  • D NEWS
    • D.1 230908 Antarctica Polar Amplification
    • D.2 230116 No US Green Monetary Policy - but EU?
    • D.3 211104 Global CO2 emissions have been flat for a decade, new data reveals
    • D.4 211104 Top climate scientists are sceptical that nations will rein in global warming
    • D.5 210921 Microsoft CO2-removal
    • D.6 210909 ORCA turned on - Iceland
    • D.7 210715 Arctic Sea Ice at Record Low
    • D.8 210526 Dutch Court against Shell
    • D.9 210509 NDCs need 80% increase to 2°C
    • D.10 210508 Young Legal Action
    • D.11 210424 Earth’s Axis tilted by Melting Glaciers
    • D.12 210410 CO2 and Methane surged in 2020
    • D.13 210404 Gas Sustainability
    • D.14 210220 US SCC Update in Progress
    • D.15 210215 Focus on Steel, Meat and Cement
    • D.16 210127 10 New Insights in Climate Science 2020
    • D.17 210130 Adaptation Summit
    • D.18 210118 Warming all anthropogenic
    • D.19 21014 Globale Temperature 1880-2020
    • D.20 210104 Not so long lag?
    • D.21 210102 Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020
  • E Sitelog
  • On Github

Climate

49 Legal Action

youth4climate The Case

49.1 Ecocide: Crime?

Ecocide is not yet illegal. International lawyers are working to codify it as a fifth crime but their campaign faces a long and uncertain road, riddled with thorny issues.

Pope Francis

Pope Francis, shepherd of 1.2 billion Catholics, has been among the most outspoken, calling out the wrongdoing with the full force of his office. He has advocated for the prosecution of corporations for ecocide, defining it as the damage or destruction of natural resources, flora and fauna or ecosystems. He has also suggested enumerating it as a sin in the Catechism of the Catholic Church, a reference text for teaching the doctrine of the faith.

President Emmanuel Macron of France, too, has been sharply vociferous. He has called the burning of the Amazon’s rainforests an ecocide and blamed Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for reckless mismanagement of a planetary resource.

Indigenous leaders have gone further. They have formally requested the International Criminal Court to investigate Bolsonaro for crimes against humanity.

To prosecute and imprison political leaders and corporate executives for ecocidal actions, like Bolsonaro’s, would require a parsing of legal boundaries and a recalibration of criminal accountability.

The moral power of advocates is increasing with the advance of environmental destruction. They already have much admissible evidence to make a case for placing limits on behaviors that make planetary matters worse.

Half a century after the problem was clearly identified, no one and no entity can yet be held responsible for climate change, the largest ecocide of all.

Sasson

Kutznet

The International Criminal Court, which was formally established in 2002 under a treaty called the Rome Statute to prosecute genocide, crimes against humanity, crimes of aggression and war crimes when its member countries, which currently number 123, fail to do so themselves.

Early drafts of the Rome Statute included the crime of environmental destruction, but it was removed after opposition from the United States, United Kingdom and the Netherlands, relegated instead to a wartime offense that has never been enforced.

As a result, international criminal law includes few guardrails to prevent peacetime environmental destruction.

“We currently cannot hold big corporations or big governments accountable for ecocide. So, what do you do? We name and shame, that’s all we’ve got.”

An ecocide crime would require International Criminal Court members to enact their own national ecocide laws, and failure to enforce those laws would enable the international court to step in.

Making ecocide a crime could help in weak states, where corporate polluters are sometimes more powerful than national governments.

While political leaders and warlords have been the usual targets of the court, an ecocide crime could place business executives on notice, too.

China, the United States, India and Russia—four of the world’s top polluters—are not members of the International Criminal Court, but if a corporation based in one of those countries were to operate within a member state, as many of them do, their executives could fall under the court’s jurisdiction.

The push to criminalize ecocide remained on the periphery until December 2019, when Vanuatu and the Maldives, two island nations threatened by rising seas and climate change-driven extreme weather, recommended that the court consider amending its statute to “criminalize acts that amount to ecocide.”

After Vanuatu asked the International Criminal Court to consider criminalizing ecocide, Mehta’s Stop Ecocide Foundation independently convened a panel of international legal experts, including Mackintosh of UCLA, to draft a clear definition of ecocide. They plan to publish their definition in June, at which point they hope at least one of the court’s member nations will formally propose making ecocide the fifth international crime against peace.

Mehta has said the definition would likely require “willful disregard” for environmental destruction related to practices like widespread logging, drilling, mining and deep-sea trawling.

But climate change poses a greater challenge: Not only is it difficult to connect polluters to specific harms, he said, but there’s also nothing illegal about extracting or burning fossil fuels.

“The situation we’re dealing with is that the carbon system, which has fueled our economies since the Industrial Revolution, has not only been lawful, but it’s been encouraged,”

Another point that the drafters will have to grapple with is whether the crime of ecocide should require prosecutors to prove that humans have been harmed. Mackintosh said that while this “human harm” threshold could prove appealing politically—the court’s existing crimes all largely involve harm to humans—focusing ecocide only on the environment could make it easier for prosecutors to prove, especially when it comes to harms related to climate change, which are often incremental and indirect.

If a nation agrees to introduce the ecocide proposal to the International Criminal Court for consideration, that is when even harder work will begin. Ratification is a multi-step process that ultimately requires support from either two-thirds or seven-eighths of the court’s members, depending on the type of amendment introduced.

While no country has committed to formally proposing that the court adopt ecocide, the campaign is gaining traction, fueled by the youth-led climate movement and radical new groups like Extinction Rebellion.

In December, Belgian Foreign Minister Sophie Wilmès asked International Criminal Court member states to examine the possibility of adopting ecocide as a crime. A member of Belgium’s Parliament has also proposed a bill to criminalize ecocide. And French lawmakers are working on legislation to make ecocide an offense punishable by fines and prison, though Stop Ecocide criticized the bill as “weak.”

At least 10 countries have national ecocide laws already, including Vietnam, which enacted the law in 1990.

Separately, French lawyers in January filed a request with the International Criminal Court on behalf of Amazonian indigenous groups asking that the court investigate Brazil’s Bolsonaro for crimes against humanity.

Mehta’s campaign is also part of a wider effort by activists who have been looking to the courts to force more aggressive action on climate change.

As of July 1, 2020, at least 1,550 climate change cases have been filed in 38 countries, according to a U.N. report.

Kusnetz

49.2 German Constitutional Court

In an order published today, the First Senate of the Federal Constitutional Court held that the provisions of the Federal Climate Change Act of 12 December 2019 (Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz – KSG) governing national climate targets and the annual emission amounts allowed until 2030 are incompatible with fundamental rights insofar as they lack sufficient specifications for further emission reductions from 2031 onwards. In all other respects, the constitutional complaints were rejected.

BVerfG

The judgment of 29 April 2021 quashing parts of the Climate Protection Act (CPA) has made history. Not only because the First Senate of the BVerfG put an end to deferring the reduction of greenhouse gasses to the future, or at least to the next government. But because this turn to the future came in the form of a turn to international law and institutions. It is precisely by relying on international law that the court overcomes the counter-majoritarian difficulty commonly tantalizing climate litigation and human rights law generally. The most astonishing fact is, however, that the court entirely avoids the tragic choice between supposedly undemocratic international commitments and the democratic legislature. I argue that it does so by approaching constitutional law in a decidedly postcolonial perspective.

[Goldman - Verfassingablog 30 april 2021](https://verfassungsblog.de/judges-for-future/

49.3 EU Import Ban

Guardian

Beef, palm oil, cocoa and other products linked to deforestation will be banned from entering the European Union under landmark legal proposals that attempt to help prevent the felling of the world’s great forests.

“What we propose is a pioneering initiative,” Virginijus Sinkevičius, the EU environment commissioner, said. “EU action alone will not solve the problem. We also need major markets like the US and China to clean up their supply chain and we need producers to step up protection of the forests, but we stand ready to help.”

The EU’s proposals left out fragile ecosystems such as Brazil’s Cerrado savannah and peatlands in south-east Asia, both rich stores of carbon, plant and animal life.

Between 1990 and 2008, EU consumption led to 10% of global deforestation, according to a commission estimate.

Gurdian (2021) EU aims to curb deforestation with beef and coffee import ban