5 Complexity
5.1 Wicked Problems
The Wicked Problem of COVID-19
The pandemic’s complexity transcends health, environment, economy, and social boundaries. Any intervention triggers responses in those various fields. From Oz Sahin, Hengky Salim, Emiliya Suprun, Shannon Rutherford , et al., “Developing a Preliminary Causal Loop Diagram for Understanding the Wicked Complexity of the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Griffith University, Australia
5.2 Predicting Collapse
Horstmeyer Abstract
The collapse of ecosystems, the extinction of species, and the breakdown of economic and financial networks usually hinges on topological properties of the underlying networks, such as the existence of self-sustaining (or autocatalytic) feedback cycles. Such collapses can be understood as a massive change of network topology, usually accompanied by the extinction of a macroscopic fraction of nodes and links. It is often related to the breakdown of the last relevant directed catalytic cycle within a dynamical system. Without detailed structural information it seems impossible to state, whether a network is robust or if it is likely to collapse in the near future. Here we show that it is nevertheless possible to predict collapse for a large class of systems that are governed by a linear (or linearized) dynamics. To compute the corresponding early warning signal, we require only non-structural information about the nodes’ states such as species abundances in ecosystems, or company revenues in economic networks. It is shown that the existence of a single directed cycle in the network can be detected by a “quantization effect” of node states, that exists as a direct consequence of a corollary of the Perron–Frobenius theorem. The proposed early warning signal for the collapse of networked systems captures their structural instability without relying on structural information. We illustrate the validity of the approach in a transparent model of co-evolutionary ecosystems and show this quantization in systems of species evolution, epidemiology, and population dynamics.
Horstmeyer (2021) Predicting collapse of adaptive networked systems without knowing the network (pdf) SI (pdf)
5.3 Complexity Theory and Financial Regulation
- Battiston Abstract*
Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of t
he financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 c
risis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make
sense of economic and financial markets. Concepts, such as tipping points, networks, con
tagion, feedback, and resilience have entered the financial and regulatory lexicon, but
actual use of complexity models and results remains at an early stage. Recent insights a
nd techniques offer potential for better monitoring and management of highly interconnec
ted economic and financial systems and, thus, may help anticipate and manage future cris
es.
5.4 Holobiont
Bardi
Holobionts are non-hierarchical networks of entities that communicate with each other. It is a kind of holobiont that exists in nature, but it is not common. Think of a flock of birds foraging in a field. One bird sees something suspicious, it flies up, and in a moment all the birds are flying away. It is a chain reaction. The flock is endowed with a certain degree of intelligence. It can process a signal and act on it.
In Nature, holobionts are not normally fully connected. Their connections are short-range, and signals travel more slowly through the network. It is often called “swarm intelligence” and it can be used to optimize systems. Swarm intelligence does transmit a signal, but it doesn’t amplify it out of control, as a fully connected network does, at least normally. It is a good control system: bacterial colonies and ant colonies use it. Our brains much more complicated: they have short range connections but also long range ones and probably also collective electromagnetic connections.
One system that is nearly fully connected is the world wide web.
Ideas (also called memes) flare up in the Web when they are stimulated it is the power of propaganda that affects everybody.
It is an intelligent system because it can amplify a signal. That is that’s the way it reacts to an external perturbation. It can only flare up and then decline. It can’t be controlled.
the problem with our modern propaganda system: it is dominated by memes flaring up out of control. The main actors in this flaring are those “supernodes” (the Media) that have a huge number of long-range connections. That can do a lot of damage: if the meme that goes out of control is an evil meme and it implies, say, going to war against someone, or exterminating someone. It happened and keeps happening again as long as the memesphere is organized the way it is, as a fully connected network. Memes just go out of control. All that means we are stuck with a memesphere that’s completely unable to manage complex systems. And yet, that’s the way the system works. It depends on these waves of out-of-control signals that sweep the web and then become accepted truths. Those who manage the propaganda system are very good at pushing the system to develop this kind of memetic waves, usually for the benefit of their employers.
Can the memesphere be re-arranged in a more effective way – turning it into a good holobiont? Probably yes. Holobionts are evolutionary entities that nobody ever designed. They have been designed by trial and error as a result of the disappearance of the unfit. Holobionts do not strive for the best, they strive for the less bad. It may happen that the same evolutionary pressure will act on the human memesphere.
The trick should consist in isolating the supernodes (the media) in such a way to reduce their evil influence on the Web. And, lo and behold, it may be happening: the great memesphere may be rearranging itself in the form of a more efficient, locally connected holobiont. Haven’t you heard of how many people say that they don’t watch TV anymore? Nor they open the links to the media on the Web. That’s exactly the idea. Do that, maybe you will start a chain reaction in which everyone will get rid of their TV. And the world will be much better.
Bardi (2021) The Mousetrap Experiment: Modeling the Memesphere