1 Statistics

The problem with thinking quantitative data and statistics provide proven “results” in “science” and “research” is that you need to be able to obtain precise and accurate data to begin with. Amid the complexity of real life and inter-related systems, that’s nearly impossible.

Most of the things that matter for daily living don’t have stationary statistical distributions, unlike games of chance. Two lessons: a) don’t model everything statistically. b) if you do model something statistically, don’t use a stationary process as your model.

The most important thing about a statistical model is not what it does with the data but what data it uses, and

Often what makes a statistical method useful is that it can make use of more data,

Statistical methods exist within a social context: it’s the method and also how it’s used.

Pure prediction has fundamental limitations when your goal is to learn about latent properties.

Empirics is wonderful when we’re in a stable and steady regime; theory is what you need when you have big shocks and possible regime changes

Many people were at first surprised, at my using the new words, Statistics and Statistical, as it was supposed, that some term in our own language, might have expressed the same meaning. But, in the course of a very extensive tour, through the northern parts of Europe, which I happened to take in 1786, I found, that in Germany they were engaged in a species of political inquiry, to which they had given the name of Statistics; and though I apply a different meaning to that word, for by Statistical is meant in Germany, an inquiry for the purpose of ascertaining the political strength of a country, or questions respecting matters of state; whereas, the idea I annex to the term, is an inquiry into the state of a country, for the purpose of ascertaining the quantum of happiness enjoyed by its inhabitants, and the means for its future improvement; yet, as I thought that a new word, might attract more public attention, I resolved on adopting it, and I hope that it is now completely naturalized and incorporated with our language. Averaging created a new class of fact—precisely typifying information that varied. By the Enlightenment, averages had become a respectable, readily deployed, form of fact, giving unity to the variety of experience and knowledge. Averages became a metaphor of credibility and normality. Crowley (2023) How Averages Became Normal (paywall)